Iran revolution would be hammer blow for Putin, claims expert - here's why

 As protests rage across more than 185 cities in Iran, one expert believes a revolution toppling the Islamic Republic - which has held sway since 1979 - would deliver a devastating blow to Vladimir Putin's geopolitical ambitions in the Middle East. The demonstrations, which erupted on December 28, 2025 amid a catastrophic economic collapse including rampant inflation and a plummeting rial, have now spread to all 31 provinces.

What began with bazaar strikes has evolved into widespread calls for regime change. Human rights groups report thousands killed in the security forces' crackdown, with internet blackouts, mass arrests and reports of protesters in some areas driving out police and Revolutionary Guard units. This marks the most serious challenge to Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei since the 1979 Islamic Revolution.

Gregg Roman, Executive Director of the Middle East Forum, argues that the loss of Iran would cripple Moscow's regional strategy.

As Mr Roman said: "Russia has already lost its Syrian logistics corridor with Assad's fall a year ago, and a collapse of the Islamic Republic would complete the destruction of Moscow's Middle East strategy."

He added: "Putin loses his last significant regional partner for weapons transfers, intelligence sharing, and sanctions evasion. The Kremlin has no replacement for Tehran."

The Russia-Iran partnership has deepened markedly since Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. Tehran has supplied thousands of Shahed drones - now largely produced in Russia as the Geran-2 - as well as short-range ballistic missiles such as the Fath-360, with transfers valued in the billions.

In exchange, Moscow has provided Iran with advanced Sukhoi Su-35 fighter jets, air-defence technology and diplomatic protection at the UN. The overthrow of Bashar al-Assad in late 2024 already cost Russia access to its key Mediterranean naval facility at Tartus and air bases, leaving Tehran as Moscow's principal remaining foothold in the region.

Mr Roman sees the current unrest as a historic opening for the West.

As Mr Roman said: "For Washington, we're watching what could be the largest uprising since 1979 unfold across 185+ cities, with protesters in some areas actually driving security forces out."

He continued: "This represents a generational opportunity to see Iran's destabilising role in the region end not through military action but through its own people."

Jennifer Kavanagh, Senior Fellow and Director of Military Analysis at Defense Priorities, takes a more cautious and nuanced view, arguing that the strategic impact on Russia would be limited.

As Ms Kavanagh explained: "Russia never depended on Iran for ballistic missiles (Iran has limited capabilities here) and no longer depends on Iran for drones."

She added: "Iran's collapse will not affect Russia's ability to fight in Ukraine at all. Iran is of limited importance to Russia. Russia might not welcome the change, but it won't affect Russia militarily at all or strategically in significant ways."

Ms Kavanagh warns against hoping for a smooth or pro-Western transition.

She said: "The most likely outcome if the current regime falls is some kind of military dictatorship. State failure and collapse would be another possible outcome."

She continued: "Either would be bad for US interests, to the extent that the US has interests in the Middle East at all."

She urged American restraint: "The United States should do what it can to protect US forces and stay out of the current protests and their aftermath."

She also dismissed the prospect of installing a Washington-friendly government in Tehran, adding: "Even with boots on the ground it is an unlikely outcome and an unnecessary goal with little value for US interests."

She concluded: "The United States should get out of the region for good, regardless of what happens in Iran."

On the regime's internal strength, Ms Kavanagh noted that while US and Israeli strikes in June 2025 exposed weaknesses in Iran's external defences, the security apparatus retains control at home.

She added: "The ability of the Iranian regime to defend against external adversaries has been weakened and called into question. However, I do not see any evidence its internal cohesion or ability to crush domestic unrest has been undermined."

She added: "We have limited information on what is happening inside Iran right now, and no evidence the regime is experiencing defections or that the IRGC's resolve is fraying."

Mr Roman, by contrast, predicts that the evaporation of Iran's regional influence would leave Russia further isolated, with Israel the chief beneficiary. Ms Kavanagh concurs that Moscow's Middle East presence is already "limited", though she cautions that any power vacuum might not automatically benefit the West.

As reports continue of security forces retreating in parts of the country, the future of the Islamic Republic remains uncertain. For Vladimir Putin - already grappling with the loss of Syria and the grinding costs of the Ukraine war - the potential collapse of his last major Middle Eastern ally could represent a profound strategic setback.

Whether the impact proves militarily marginal or geopolitically catastrophic, however, remains a matter of sharp disagreement among analysts.