Scientists warn: Solar storms could spark satellite disasters in 2.8 days

 The rapid growth of satellite mega-constellations, such as SpaceX’s Starlink, has revolutionized global communication. However, a new study on arXiv highlights that these systems might be more fragile than previously understood, particularly in the face of natural disasters like solar storms. As researchers warn, this technological marvel could be in jeopardy, potentially leading to catastrophic consequences for Earth’s orbit and satellite systems.

Understanding the Fragility of Satellite Mega-Constellations

A recent pre-print study on arXivconducted by Sarah Thiele and her co-authors sheds light on the vulnerabilities of today’s satellite systems. The research uses the metaphor of a “house of cards” to describe the delicate nature of low-Earth orbit (LEO) mega-constellations. These massive networks of satellites, designed to offer global internet access, are now operating with far greater risk than many realize. According to the paper, satellites in these constellations, such as those belonging to SpaceX’s Starlink program, encounter regular close encounters, or “close approaches,” with each other—occurring as frequently as once every 22 seconds across the entire constellation. Starlink alone faces a close approach every 11 minutes.

This frequency of satellite proximity is far higher than most would expect, underscoring the fundamental instability of these systems. For operators, the stakes are high. Each satellite requires multiple maneuvers annually to avoid collision, with Starlink satellites needing to perform an average of 41 such evasive actions each year. This is all part of a well-engineered attempt to prevent disastrous collisions, but it highlights the reliance on constant, real-time control to keep the system intact.

The Unseen Dangers: Solar Storms and the Fragility of Mega-Constellations

Solar storms, one of the most unpredictable natural phenomena, pose a unique and serious risk to these mega-constellations. The study underscores how solar storms can cause satellites to lose control, especially in terms of navigation and communication systems. This loss of control during a solar storm could be catastrophic, as it prevents the satellites from performing critical maneuvers that would otherwise avoid collision with other objects in space.

One such solar event, the Gannon Storm of May 2024, acted as a stark reminder of the potential havoc these storms can wreak. During this event, more than half of all satellites in LEO were forced to expend fuel and perform evasive maneuvers due to increased drag from a heated atmosphere. This fuel consumption, along with the added uncertainty of satellite positions, can accelerate the process of satellite degradation and increase the risk of collisions. However, even more devastating is the possibility that solar storms could completely incapacitate a satellite’s systems, rendering it helpless to avoid an impending collision. This creates a domino effect that could lead to a catastrophic failure across the entire constellation, setting the stage for cascading damage to other satellites.

The CRASH Clock: A New Metric for Catastrophe

To quantify this risk, Thiele and her team introduced a novel metric called the Collision Realization and Significant Harm (CRASH) Clock. This tool helps model how quickly a catastrophecould unfold if satellite operators lost the ability to send commands for collision avoidance. In the study, the researchers reveal that by June 2025, a catastrophic collision could occur within just 2.8 days if such a failure were to happen. This is a sharp contrast to the 121 days calculated back in 2018, prior to the proliferation of satellite mega-constellations.

The CRASH Clock highlights just how quickly the situation can spiral out of control. Even a brief loss of control—just 24 hours—could lead to a 30% chance of a catastrophic collision, setting off a chain reaction that could lead to the onset of Kessler syndrome. This phenomenon, which refers to the exponential growth of space debris, could render Earth’s orbit unusable for generations, making it impossible to launch new satellites or space missions.

The Carrington Event: A Historical Precedent for Disaster

Perhaps the most unsettling aspect of this research is the recognition that solar storms capable of incapacitating satellite systems are not just theoretical—they have already happened. The Carrington Event of 1859, the strongest solar storm on record, serves as a cautionary tale. If such an event were to occur today, the researchers argue, it could easily overwhelm the satellite infrastructure, wiping out global communications and potentially leading to decades of inaccessibility to space.

Unlike typical solar storms, which might only cause localized disturbances, the Carrington Event was a massive coronal mass ejection (CME) that affected the entire Earth. If a similar event were to occur now, with our reliance on satellite mega-constellations, the consequences could be far-reaching and immediate. The study suggests that such a storm could cause satellite systems to fail for much longer than three days, leading to a cascade of failures across all mega-constellations, crippling global communications and space endeavors for years, if not decades.